Commodities: Oil Climbs on Supply Worries as Metals and Softs Strengthen

Market Analysis

Oil prices extended gains for a third consecutive session as traders responded to rising geopolitical risks and persistent supply concerns. ICE Brent traded above $91 per barrel, supported by heightened tensions in the Middle East including renewed USIran frictions and worries about shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Market attention also focused on Saudi efforts to diversify export routes, which underscore a wider, security-driven re-assessment of global crude flows.

Precious metals moved higher alongside oil. Gold extended a recent advance and was holding above $4,400 per ounce after rebounding sharply from July lows near $3,900/oz. The metals move reflects safe-haven demand amid geopolitical uncertainty and the broader risk-off backdrop that has been lifting commodity prices.

Commodities outside energy and gold also showed notable stress in physical and near-term markets. Copper market dynamics on the LME pointed to acute spot tightness: the tom-next premium had climbed to about $75 per tonne while the cash/3m spread widened to roughly $545/t. Those spreads signal scarcity in prompt metal and reflect logistical and inventory pressures that are tightening the market.

Coffee futures experienced a particularly dramatic move in the near curve. The SeptemberDecember spread widened into a record backwardation of US¢27 per pound for 2026 contracts as traders rushed to cover short positions ahead of September expiry. The backwardation stems from a combination of delayed Brazilian harvests, logistical disruption in Colombia, and historically low exchange inventories even though the market still expects a large Brazilian crop for the 2026/27 season.

Commodities Snapshot and Drivers

Energy: Brent remained buoyant above $91/bbl on the back of geopolitical risk, supply-route concerns in the Gulf and Saudi export re-routing efforts. Those supply-side concerns have been the dominant story supporting crude prices across the complex.

Metals: Coppers steep tom-next and cash/3m premiums on the LME point to constrained near-term availability and stronger-than-expected demand for prompt deliveries. Golds rebound above $4,400/oz points to safe-haven flows amid the same geopolitical and market-pressure drivers that are supporting oil.

Soft commodities: Coffees record near-term backwardation highlights immediate physical tightness and short-covering ahead of contract roll dates. The drivers Brazilian harvest delays, Colombian logistical issues and low exchange stocks explain why short-term prices have outpaced expectations even with a larger crop forecast for 2026/27.

Taken together, these moves show a commodity complex where supply-side risks and logistical bottlenecks are increasingly prominent. Traders are repricing near-term availability and risk premia across energy, metals and softs, supporting a broad-based upswing in prices.