Central banks reshuffle gold: Russia and Kazakhstan sell while Poland and China keep buying

Market moves

Central banks are shifting their approaches to gold this year, with some major sellers and buyers reshaping flows without, experts say, threatening the metal's long-term trajectory. Russia has been the most prominent seller: its reserves fell by about 6.2 tonnes in September, bringing the total reduction since January to roughly 62 tonnes. Only once in modern Russian history has the country disposed of gold at a similar pace in 1998, when it sold 118 tonnes in three months.

Adam Stroniawski, managing director of Polish precious-metals dealer Mennica Skarbowa, attributes Russias liquidations to fiscal pressure. "Russia has a serious budget shortfall because of its war in Ukraine and wants to inject more funds into the defence sector," he told Euronews. Stroniawski said much of the selling is taking place outside the London bullion market notably via Hong Kong and that Chinas central bank is the main buyer. Hong Kong trade data support that view: between January and July, about 100 tonnes of Russian gold reached Hong Kong, nearly three times the volume in the same period last year.

A few days before Moscow released its latest data, Kazakhstan announced plans to trim part of its gold holdings. The Central Asian country which had been one of the worlds biggest buyers in the first eight months of 2026 said it will reduce the share of gold in its total reserves to 75% by year-end, down from around 78% now. Stroniawski suggested the move may be temporary, driven either by the need to plug a budget gap or to take profits: "Kazakhstan has been buying gold for a long time, so it will now be selling at a significant profit." He added that the modest scale of the reduction and the fact sales will be spread over time mean the impact on global markets should be limited.

Poland, by contrast, continues to build its stockpile. The National Bank of Poland has actively bought gold for several years and is approaching its stated target of 700 tonnes. Stroniawski sees Polands accumulation as driven by domestic policy priorities: large gold reserves strengthen a country's credit standing and help stabilise the currency. At present, Poland ranks around 10th globally in gold holdings, and reaching 700 tonnes, he argued, is unlikely to mark the end of purchases.

What this means for investors

Despite recent selling by Russia and Kazakhstan, Stroniawski expects the global price impact to be muted. Much of the Russian material is reportedly being sold outside traditional London channels to buyers like China, which recycles the metal back into official reserves. The expert does not rule out Russia later returning to buyer status, as it did after the 1998 sell-off.

For private investors, the picture remains one of long-term support for gold even amid short-term volatility. Prices surged in 2024 and 2025 rising 25.5% and 67.4% respectively in US dollar terms, according to the World Gold Council but weakened by 4.4% in the first nine months of 2026. Stroniawski characterises recent dips as corrections within an overall upward trend supported by central-bank demand and investors viewing gold as a safe-haven reserve asset. "When it comes to gold, I wouldn't assume it will ever be cheaper," he says, while cautioning that reliable returns typically accrue over the long term rather than from short-term speculation.

In short, central-bank behaviour has become more mixed: some governments are monetising gains or addressing fiscal needs, while others are continuing to accumulate to bolster balance sheets. For individual investors, that mix suggests episodic price swings but persistent structural support for gold as a portfolio diversifier and store of value.