MacroResearchBoard Warns: AI Hype, Rising Yields Could Pressure U.S. Stocks Take Profits Abroad

Market Analysis

Technology stocks have driven the U.S. equity rally, but one boutique research firm says investors should prepare for a test in the next six to 12 months. Montreal-based MacroResearchBoard argues that high liquidity and a long period of low real interest rates have inflated valuations especially for companies whose profits depend on far-future cash flows, such as AI-related and semiconductor firms.

Peter Perkins, a strategist at MacroResearchBoard, wrote in a note to clients published July 2 that the firm sees greater odds of investor disappointment than positive surprises in the year ahead. He points to investor sentiment gauges that, in his view, already price in a good deal of economic optimism and significant upside for equities versus bonds. The test for technology stocks, and semiconductors in particular, looms, Perkins said.

The firms concern is straightforward: if central banks push rates higher and bond yields rise, assets whose value depends on long-term earnings growth notably AI and semiconductor names could see sharp valuation repricing. MacroResearchBoard highlights the role of extensive liquidity since the 200809 global financial crisis and the long period of capital costs trading below economic growth rates as a key driver of the current boom.

Positioning and Regional Views

Given that outlook, MacroResearchBoard recommends dialing down U.S. equity exposure. Within global equities it prefers overweight allocations to emerging markets, Japan and the euro area, and a mild underweight to the U.S. The firm reasons that if transit through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes easing energy concerns growth in Europe, Japan and many emerging markets could recover and allow non-U.S. earnings to close ground with U.S. companies.

For multi-asset portfolios, the firm says it is overweight cash and neutral on stocks overall. In fixed income it is underweight and favors short-duration instruments. It specifically highlights the 2-year U.S. Treasury note as a vehicle to express that preference over longer-dated bonds.

MacroResearchBoard also expects the dollars growth-differential advantage to shrink over the next 12 months as Asian and European economies recover from energy-related shocks. That view makes currencies such as the euro, the yen and the Singapore dollar more attractive, the firm says, alongside other emerging-market currencies.

On commodities, MacroResearchBoard takes a neutral stance across a multi-asset portfolio but shows a tilt toward base metals over oil or gold because base metals are central to the buildout of data centers and other AI infrastructure.

Key Figures and Market Signals

Market data cited alongside the research note showed the U.S. 2-year Treasury yielding about 4.181% and the U.S. 10-year trading around 4.490% at the time of publication levels that underline the firms short-duration bias. Currency modest moves noted included small gains for EUR/USD, USD/JPY and SGD/USD, reinforcing the firms view that non-dollar currencies may find support as external growth catches up.

Perkinss recommendation is an explicitly tactical one: protect portfolios from a potential valuation shock in long-duration, growth-dependent assets by increasing cash exposure, shortening bond duration, and shifting geographic equity risk toward Japan, the euro area and certain emerging markets.

Investors should treat the advice as a view, not a mandate. If macro conditions evolve differently for example, if inflation falls quickly and central banks ease sooner than expected the environment could re-favor long-duration growth stocks. But for now, MacroResearchBoard is sounding a cautionary note: the combination of AI-driven enthusiasm and rising yields could be the next serious market test.