Goldman Sachs Raises Tesla Price Target but Warns of Potential Setbacks

Goldman Sachs has increased its price target for Tesla, yet the investment bank remains cautious about potential short-term setbacks. Despite the promising long-term prospects in robotics and autonomous driving, analysts see potential risks in the near future. Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney raised Tesla's price target from $300 to $395 per share. However, even with this increase, the stock implies a potential downside of approximately seven percent. The bank's rating on Tesla remains neutral, reflecting a balanced outlook. Delaney attributes the revised price target to improved market multipliers and a higher long-term growth rate, alongside adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimates. These adjustments reflect both heightened market expectations and Tesla's potential in emerging sectors.

Robotics and Autonomy as Growth Drivers

Long-term, Delaney sees significant potential in Tesla's foray into humanoid robotics and autonomous driving. Should these areas grow beyond expectations, Tesla's stock could surpass the current price target. However, Delaney also cautioned that intense competition, particularly in China's advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) market, could pressure margins and complicate execution. In a base scenario for 2030, Delaney estimates earnings per share between $7 and $9. An optimistic scenario could see EPS as high as $20, significantly exceeding current forecasts.

Improved Outlook for the Second Half

Despite a 14% drop in deliveries in the second quarter, which marked a second consecutive decline, Goldman Sachs expects better performance in the third and fourth quarters. Factors supporting this optimism include the launch of the new Model Y L, improved consumer data, and the conclusion of tax credits for electric vehicles under the US Inflation Reduction Act by September 2025. Tesla remains a contentious topic among analysts. According to LSEG data, 21 analysts maintain a neutral or hold rating, while 23 recommend buying. Over the past six months, Tesla's stock has nearly doubled, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. As of the publication of this article, Tesla shares were trading at €354.6 on Tradegate, reflecting a slight increase of 0.27%. This performance underscores the mixed sentiment surrounding Tesla's future trajectory, balancing its innovative potential with looming competitive challenges.