AI Boom Keeps Goods Trade Moving Despite Headwinds

Global Trade Stalls, but AI-Related Goods Provide Momentum

Global merchandise trade is set to cool markedly in 2026 after unexpectedly strong growth in 2025, the World Trade Organization (WTO) warns. Trade flows have been reshaped by tariffs and geopolitical shocks, but it is the surge in demand for goods tied to artificial intelligence that has kept shipments and production lines active.

The WTOs Global Trade Outlook projects world goods trade volume growth of 1.9% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, down from the gains seen in 2025. Global GDP growth is forecast at 2.8% for both 2026 and 2027 about 0.1 percentage point below the 2025 outcome. In a scenario where crude oil and LNG prices remain high, the WTO estimates GDP could be 0.3 percentage points lower and global trade 0.5 points weaker.

The organisation also cautions that the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran could further weigh on trade if energy prices stay elevated. Travel and transport disruptions, plus lingering supply-chain problems, are additional downside risks that could transmit directly into weaker trade activity.

Ngozi OkonjoIweala, DirectorGeneral of the WTO, highlighted a pressing short-term risk to food security stemming from blockades in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Around one-third of global fertilizer exports normally move through that route, she noted, and Gulf states which import between 75% and 90% of their food could face heightened vulnerability.

AI-Related Goods: The Unexpected Engine of Trade

Despite tariff pressures, the WTO finds that many protectionist measures have redirected trade rather than stopped it outright. Crucially, AIrelated goods emerged in 2025 as an outsized driver of trade: trade value in such goods jumped 21.9% yearonyear to roughly USD 4.18 trillion. The WTO finds that AIrelated products accounted for about 42% of global trade growth last year, while representing roughly onesixth of total merchandise trade.

Much of this growth reflects demand for chips and semiconductors, servers, networking equipment and data transmission devices the hardware that powers data centres and AI workloads. The WTO also notes that many new tariffs have specifically excluded key AIenabling items such as chips and data transmission equipment, helping to sustain flows of these goods.

A McKinsey Global Institute study echoes the WTOs findings. McKinsey identifies broadly defined AI goods as the single largest contributor to global trade expansion. About onethird of global trade growth in recent years can be traced to exports of semiconductors, servers and network technology the components required for AI computing infrastructure.

The United States has been the dominant demand centre, accounting for roughly half of newly built datacentre capacity. McKinsey estimates U.S. trade in AIrelated goods rose about 66% or approximately USD 220 billion. AI generates not only data flows but also goods flows, McKinsey observes.

At the same time, China is evolving into what McKinsey calls the factory of factories, a role that Germany used to occupy in global manufacturing hierarchies. That shift reflects faster, more flexible responses from Asian supply bases and India, which have capitalised on opportunities when U.S. buyers reduced imports from China.

Europes moment to step into those supply-chain gaps appears to have passed, McKinsey argues. Germany and the EU did not sufficiently act as alternative suppliers when U.S. buyers rebalanced sourcing away from China, and as a result they risk losing ground in the high-growth segments tied to AI infrastructure.

Implications for markets and policymakers are multifold. Elevated energy prices and geopolitical risk remain the chief macro drags. But robust demand for AI hardware could cushion some damage to trade, offering a route for producers and exporters to sustain revenues even amid broader slowdown. Policymakers seeking to strengthen industrial competitiveness may need to accelerate investments, reduce frictions for critical technology supply chains, and consider targeted trade and industrial policies to capture AIrelated value chains.

For now, AI keeps cargo on the move but the outlook depends heavily on energy markets, geopolitical developments and whether Europe can regain traction in advanced manufacturing that feeds the AI ecosystem.